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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.